Gold: The False God of the Revolution

The US Government confiscated private gold in 1933. Let me repeat this as it is very important to note; The United States Government confiscated the personal private gold supplies of it's citizens in 1933. At the beginning of the worst economic crisis in the history of our country, our fearless leaders figured that the best step to ensure the wealth of the citizens was to steal the wealth of it's citizens.

It is also important to note two things that the government did not do. First of all, they didn't confiscate all of our personal food supplies. Secondly, they were nice enough not to break all of our legs rendering us incapable of working. This is important to note because many Americans are preparing their own safe havens for their families and themselves in the event of another major collapse. A safe haven in this case, is simply something that is going to keep you fed. Seeing as how the government doesn't have a history of confiscating our food, nor physically preventing us from working in exchange for food, but they do very specifically have a history of taking our gold right at the beginning of a collapse, why then would we think that owning gold is a safe haven for our wealth?

As an investment rather than a safe haven, gold is no better off. Any good investor will tell you to buy low, then sell high. That option doesn't exist with gold right now because gold is already high. “Buy high, sell high” is not something you'll hear an investor say, unless he is selling pot. In any case, the price of gold is extremely high compared to historical trends. With that trend being caused by the weakness of the dollar, and with the dollar having already lost over 97% of its original value and not having much weaker it can get before it collapses, like any bubble, the price of gold can't go up drastically further either.

To put this in perspective, consider the real estate bubble. On top of federal legislation, the housing bubble was aided in no small part by unnaturally low interest rates. Mathematically, interest rates couldn't have gone much lower before the banks would have been paying you to borrow their money. If the driving factor of the bubble is near its mathematical limit, then the bubble is near its bursting point.

In the gold market, we are at such a point. We aren't finding wonderful new uses for gold every day which has driven up it's value. Gold's value has been driven up by two main factors, Glenn Beck's doomsday radio show, and a weak dollar. Although I don't disagree with Glenn's hysterics, I tend to think the weak dollar deserves more of the blame. With that said, because the dollar cannot get much weaker until it loses any value at all, gold, as an investment, only makes sense if you've already owned it for several years.

So here is what we are left with. If you buy gold now, and the economy collapses as you and I suspect that it will, then the government is very likely going to confiscate your gold just like they did before, leaving you with nothing. If you buy gold now, and the Ron Paul Revolution turns the tide of the nation, audits the Federal Reserve and reverses their inflationary effect on the dollar, then the price of gold is going to plummet, and you will lose your shirt. In short, if you buy gold now, your likely outcomes are to lose your gold, or lose your shirt. Neither option is going to feed your family.

So what is the safe haven? To begin with, it is food. Beyond that, your safe haven is capitalism, or your means of production, or your means of working for food. Although gold holds its value as a medium of exchange better than paper, it is still only a medium of exchange. Gold is not the wealth being exchanged.

Even in communist China, capitalism is difficult to extinguish for this very important reason; governments can fool liberals into thinking it is justifiable to steal an individual's money, but they rarely have the guts to steal an individuals food, or ability to work. When your safe haven exists as money, whether it is gold or paper, you make it easier for the government to rob you of the fruits of your labor. When your safe haven is food, and your ability to work for it, then it won't matter if we switch to a seashell standard, you'll be able to provide the necessities.

A Path for Gary

                If anyone knows Gary Johnson, please extend my personal invitation to him to rejoin the Republican Party. For some reason, hundreds of thousands of liberty loving citizens have spent the last few years attempting to take over and redefine the party. I can’t quite recall who started this R3VOLUTION, but it has been working as well as anyone could have expected. I myself was even a delegate to my state convention, where I helped elect a liberty loving delegate from my district to the national convention in Tampa, FL, as well as several more at large delegates. In other states, liberty minded citizens have done the same. They have even won GOP chairman positions, precinct committeeman positions, as well as higher offices in the House and the Senate.

                All in all, I’d say that the plan to drastically transform the Republican Party has gone extremely well. If I were a betting man, I’d say in 2 years, we will be neck and neck with the establishment, and in 4 years, it is likely that the liberty movement will have a very real chance at nominating a true Constitutional Conservative to run against the Democrats in 2016.

                Having said that, let me express my deepest respect for Gary Johnson and the work he has done. I would be truly honored to vote for him for this nation’s highest office in 2016. While Mr. Johnson is currently running his own campaign for the Libertarian Party for the 2012 election, the majority of the liberty minded voters who are most likely to agree with his platform, are currently in the process of reshaping the Republican platform. If only we could bring these two together.

                You know, this situation reminds me of something similar that happened nearly 25 years ago when another champion of liberty ran for POTUS as a Libertarian. I believe the fellow’s name was Ron Paul. He didn’t get the support he needed to win the election, but he did start a movement which would later grow into a revolution. Dr. Paul decided later on that taking his revolution through the Republican Party would be the most effective way of really achieving the changes he felt the country needed. Fast forward some years later, and now that decades old plan is really starting to take root.

                I have taken it upon myself to get involved in this party because I want those same changes. The plan in place for many years has been to get involved in the Republican Party so that like-minded individuals will have the infrastructure and influence of one of the two largest parties when it comes time for local, state, and national elections. I don’t know who will be the torch bearer for our movement in 2016, but Mr. Johnson has done as much as any other to earn that right. However, I’m afraid his name won’t be in consideration if he is still outside the mainstream of the liberty movement, and running as a Libertarian is certainly outside the mainstream of this movement.

                With that said, I’ll repeat my earlier request for anyone who knows Mr. Johnson personally to welcome him back to the Republican Party. Just imagine a primary season with 5 or 6 true Constitutionalists battling for the Republican nomination. I have little doubt about Gary Johnson’s conservative credentials. I have little doubt about the effectiveness of the liberty movements plan to transform the Republican Party.  I also have little doubt that Gary Johnson’s only chance to truly lead the liberty movement and the nation is to return to the Republican Party.

Ron Paul's 1%

Attention Ron Paul supporters. You are the 1%.

To be honest, you are the less than 1%. I don’t mean you are wealthy beyond imagination. I mean that when we honestly look at the numbers, the Ron Paul Revolution consists of less than 1% of the population.

I am going to give you some cold hard numbers. I’ll attempt to give you my opinion on them, however, numbers are just numbers. They don’t bend to the passion of those who wish they were different. Delusions of grandeur never helped any revolution and our movement is no different. As a fellow die-hard liberty activist such as yourself, please believe me when I tell you that it gives me no pleasure to peel back this façade. The only comfort I have in this is my own interpretation of these numbers and how they relate to some of the less popular decisions the Paul campaign has made.

First of all, there are over 300 million Americans in this country. Even if voter fraud was massive in this primary season, Ron Paul will have received at best, 3 million votes. If the voter fraud was not massive, or non-existent, and he received fewer, either way, the number of Americans who felt enough outrage over our system to get involved for liberty was still less than 1% of the population. 1% does not a revolution make.

Humbling as that may be, the more damaging evidence is that only around 1% of those 3 million voters actually involved themselves in local and state conventions. Imagine if 3 million Ron Paul supporters took the extra step to try to become state delegates, alternates, and local precinct committeemen. If every one of those 3 million citizens was as involved as they could be, there would be no way for the establishment to keep the nomination from Ron Paul. However, not every Paul supporter took that step. No disrespect to any of them, but simply put, the movement isn’t as large as we think it is, and the most passionate among us are fewer than we think they are.

The reason I bring this up is because a campaign with millions of our dollars to spend on polling and statistical analysis surely knows this. When Ron sees that only tens of thousands of supporters are taking the steps to win in Tampa, out of 300 million Americans, you can rest assured that he knows that even as the message has grown, and the numbers have grown, 76 year old Ron Paul will not live to see the changes he has worked 40 years to achieve, unless the movement becomes mainstream. 3 million primary voters is not mainstream.

Another cold hard truth, which I’m sure you already know, is that our democratic republic isn’t run by the majority. It is run by the majority who show up. Even as that may be good for our movement, consider the numbers from 2008. While only 30% of the nation actually voted for Barack Obama, less than 10% actually voted in the primaries. This means that every 4 years, the majority of voters will vote blindly for one of the two candidates handed to them by the minority who decide the primaries. It will take around 63 million votes to win a general election. Considering the best case scenario that Ron Paul has 3 million primary voters, this means that for a Ron Paul victory, or a liberty candidate in general, 60 million uninformed Americans are going to need to vote for “our” candidate.

Think about this carefully. Right now, the R3VOLUTION consists of 3 million people at best. We need 63 million. The sad truth is that we will not get to that number through this Revolution alone. The saving grace is that Ron has known this for quite some time, and this is the reason he runs as a Republican. You and I both know that this year, tens of millions of voters will vote for Mitt Romney without really knowing anything about him. As sad as that is, this is our current system. Even sadder still, if the liberty movement is going to take the White House, we will need 10’s of millions of uninformed voters to voter for our candidate.

It has been a once in a life time privilege to support a candidate with a perfect voting record and absolutely nothing on his resume which we need to “explain away”. Unfortunately, the reason Ron Paul is in such a position is also the reason that we cannot currently get the 10’s of millions of “drone” voters to vote for him in November. With that said, the path to the changes we demand is currently through the Republican Party, but it will also require an evolution from what Ron has done.

It is a dirty path. It’s an ugly path. It is a path that may involve some disheartening pseudo-endorsements. However, if we did not believe that the democratic process, and the presidency in particular were the paths to the changes we demand, we wouldn’t be making such a huge deal about Ron Paul’s candidacy, and we wouldn’t be making such a huge deal about Rand Paul’s half-hearted endorsement of Mitt Romney. In addition, if we continue to believe that we can win the presidency with 50 thousand hardcore activists, and at most, 3 million luke warm voters, then we will remain the extremely loud minority who pats themselves on the back for trying, yet failing to achieve the changes our leader has worked decades for.

To put it bluntly, my opinion is that Rand Paul is doing what his father told him to do. My opinion is that in 2016, tens of millions of Americans will vote for Rand even though they don’t understand liberty, and this will be because of Ron’s genius. Although the most passionate among us will disavow Rand forever, what is not my opinion is that the most passionate among us are the minority within a group that is already a minority. If those perfectionists abandon Rand in 2016, well…..a few thousand voters isn’t going to be the difference. The numbers don’t lie. Ron knows this, and if Rand were going to be Ron II, then our movement would continue to be nothing more than the 1%